Multimarket It now indicates an 80% probability that the independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will withdraw from the 2024 race before November.
This last one forecast indicates the highest probability yet, as the odds of Kennedy dropping out rose from 50% to 80% in a matter of days.
Speculation on school dropouts intensifies
The rise in dropout predictions, as reflected in Polymarket data, comes amid ongoing deliberations within the Kennedy campaign about its future strategy.
With $23,147 in bets placed on this outcome and a settlement date of October 31, 2024, the market appears to be pricing in a high probability of Kennedy retiring well before the general election.
Nicole ShanahanKennedy's running mate recently revealed that the campaign is considering two main options:
“One stays, forms that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris-Buttigieg presidency… or we walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trumpshanahan fixed.
Kennedy reaffirms campaign goals
Amid speculation about the future of his campaign, Kennedy took to social media to reaffirm his commitment to his long-standing goals.
“As always, I am willing to speak with leaders of any political party to advance the goals I have served for 40 years in my career and in this campaign. Those are: reversing the epidemic of chronic disease, ending the war machine, eliminating corporate influence from government and toxic pollution from the environment, protecting free speech, and ending the politicization of law enforcement agencies,” he said in a statement. statement.
The statement suggests that while Kennedy is open to engaging with a variety of political leaders, including potentially Trump, his focus is on the core issues that have defined his campaign and career.
Read also: Crypto industry awaits Kamala Harris' stance as election season heats up
The stance on cryptocurrencies remains in the spotlight
As speculation mounts about the future of his campaign, Kennedy's bold stance on cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin BTC/USDcontinues to attract attention.
He has proposed a plan for the federal government to accumulate Bitcoin until its holdings match the country's gold reserves, a proposal that would involve acquiring nearly $579 billion worth of Bitcoin.
Kennedy has described Bitcoin as an “honest currency” and a “stop off the inflationary highway,” emphasizing its potential role in economic policy.
This pro-crypto stance aligns Kennedy with a broader shift in the political landscape, where digital assets are increasingly becoming a topic of interest.
The changing political landscape of cryptocurrencies
The potential withdrawal of a pro-cryptocurrency candidate like Kennedy could significantly impact the discourse surrounding digital assets in the political arena.
Interestingly, other political figures, including former president Donald TrumpThey have also evolved their positions on digital assets.
Trump, once an outspoken critic of cryptocurrencies, now reportedly owns between $1 million and $5 million in digital assets, according to recent financial disclosures.
At the recent Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump announced plans to transform the United States into a “crypto superpower” if re-elected, stating: “This afternoon I am laying out my plan to ensure that the United States is the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world.”
Looking to the future
As the November election approaches, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrencies is expected to be a major topic of conversation.
The high likelihood of Kennedy's departure, as indicated by Polymarket, could reshape the political landscape and the future of cryptocurrency policy in the United States.
Industry watchers and policy analysts will be watching these developments closely, particularly at events like Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets conference on November 19.
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